Buxton, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS61 KGYX 211331
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
931 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a mostly sunny and comfortable day, a disturbance will
approach from the west early Sunday morning, bringing the
chance for scattered showers and strong thunderstorms. A few
lingering thunderstorms are then possible later Sunday
afternoon. Potentially dangerous heat and humidity build early
next week before temperatures cool back down towards seasonable
levels mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update...
Morning forecast on track with low humidity and warming
temperatures, making for the best weather conditions on a
Saturday in months. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs
around 75-85, with dewpoints around 50-55. A slight breeze will
be possible with daytime heating and mixing. A seabreeze is
expected to develop under light flow, allowing for some cooling
along the coast. Overall the forecast is on track.

Previously...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this Saturday
morning shows mainly clear skies with just some hints of valley
fog beginning to develop. The clear skies and low dew points
have allowed for radiational cooling with readings down into the
lower 40s across some northern valleys with 50s in most other
locations. A few additional degrees of cooling is possible
through sunrise.

An unusually nice Saturday is on tap for today as surface high
pressure and H5 ridging moves overhead. Skies will be mainly
sunny with light winds, becoming southerly late day with a
developing sea breeze. High temperatures will be into the 70s
and 80s with comfortably low dew points into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Attention tonight turns towards an MCS that is currently moving
across northern Minnesota. This convective system is progged to
ride along the H5 ridge axis through the day today before
arriving somewhere in New England by early Sunday morning. These
systems are often tough to predict their movement with latest
CAM guidance significantly further south than global guidance.
Despite these differences, there is generally good agreement
that much of the region will receive rainfall and therefore
increased PoPs across the board. Despite the late night nature
of this system, there will be upper level energy for it to feed
off of with low-level WAA in place. Therefore, while it should
be undergoing a general weakening trend, a few thunderstorms are
likely and some of which could be strong to severe with
damaging winds the primary hazard. The latest D1/D2 SPC outlook
places the entire region within a MRGL risk (level 1/5).

Low temperatures will be into the 50s and 60s.

This region of convection will exit later Sunday morning with
clearing skies and warming temperatures into the 80s and 90s
from north to south. Heat indices are expected to approach 100
degrees for a few hours during the afternoon and therefore
issued a Heat Advisory in those locations. Will have to watch
for any lingering sfc boundaries as the combination of
increasing heat/humidity with a lingering cold pool aloft will
allow for strong destabilization to occur. Increased PoPs
through the day to account for this as any storms that do
manage to develop could pretty easily become strong to severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update... Issued an Extreme Heat Watch for south-central
NH for Monday and Tuesday. Issued an Extreme Heat Watch for
interior western ME for Tuesday.

1055 PM Update...No significant changes in the latest NBM
guidance regarding the period of hot and humid conditions Sunday
night through Tuesday. Temperatures will trend down into the 80s
on Wednesday and 70s on Thursday as high pressure builds into
eastern Canada and a stationary front settles near southern New
England. This front will bring chances for showers during the
second half of next week.

Previously...

Pattern Overview: The long term period will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure building over the eastern United States.
Toward the end of the long term period global models suggest
more unsettled weather as the ridge breaks down and the pattern
becomes more influenced by a northern stream trough.


Impacts and Key Messages:
* Dangerous heat and humidity is expected early next week with
  heat index values around 100F.

Details:

Monday and Tuesday: This is the period to watch as we will see
some early season heat and humidity that will push well into
advisory criteria and toward extreme heat thresholds. Dewpoints
will remain in the upper 60s and near 70 in many places under a
substantial ridge of high pressure that will be building over
the eastern United States (ensembles continue to advertise 500
mb heights approaching 600 dm over the Northeast) which will
amount to heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100F during
the afternoon hours. Our saving grace that is keeping us from
slam dunk extreme heat is that Monday flow turns northwesterly
which looks to cap the dewpoints around 70 and thusly cap the
heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 for most of the
area. This bears watching as just a degree or two uptick in
dewpoints and/or temperatures will pump up the heat indices.
With that being said, this is still dangerous heat and humidity,
and folks should be well prepared if they are planning outdoor
activities. It is also worth noting that nighttime apparent
temperatures are going to remain warm Monday night (in the low
70s), so folks should prepare for that as well. Please reference
the climate section below for information on potential for high
temperature records to be set.

A cold front will be on approach Tuesday and depending on
timing this would touch off some showers and thunderstorms as it
moves through. Another point of uncertainty is how far south
the front makes it. At this moment it seems like areas north of
the mountains have the best chance of seeing relief from the
heat Tuesday night with areas to the south seeing temperatures
in the upper 60s and low 70s linger through the night.

Wednesday-Friday: Wednesday will be warm as the region remains
firmly under the ridge, but the aforementioned cold front would
bring dewpoints down making for a noticeably less humid and
oppressive day. The latest guidance suggests a more unsettled
pattern late week as the ridge begins to break down and we get
some influence from a northern stream trough. Models can
sometimes be optimistic on the speed at which fronts come
through and ridges break down, so some heat lingering into
Wednesday in southern zones is not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Outside of any patchy valley FG through 12Z this
morning VFR conditions will prevail today with light southerly
flow of 5-15 kts. An area of showers and thunderstorms is likely
after midnight tonight through around 14Z Sunday and this could
result in some restrictions along with some low level wind
shear. Mainly VFR is then likely later Sunday but a few
additional showers/storms are possible.

Long Term...VFR will prevail through Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday night, but uncertainty
remains in their extent.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure moves over the waters today into
tonight with generally light winds and fair seas. A few showers
and storms are possible early Sunday morning with locally
higher winds possible. Southwesterly winds will increase later
Sunday with gusts across the outer waters approaching 30 kts
with seas of 2-4 ft.

Long Term...Afternoon seabreezes will develop each day as
significant heat is expected over the land.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Anomalously high pressure will allow for dangerous heat and
humidity to build into the region. This heat could potentially
be record breaking for Monday (6/23) and Tuesday (6/24). Below
are the records for our climate sites.

  Site             Record June 23rd    Record June 24th

Portland Jetport    91 (1983)              93 (1976)
Augusta             89 (1999)              93 (1963)
Concord             94 (2020)              95 (1980)

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for MEZ012>014-018>022-033.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ018-023.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MEZ024>028.
NH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NHZ007-008-
     010>015.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NHZ005>013-015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Baron/Schroeter/Tubbs
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...